The relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases, meteorological variables, and particulate matter concentration in a medium-sized Brazilian city

Priscila Boleta Gonçalves; Danilo Covaes Nogarotto; Felippe Benavente Canteras; Simone Andrea Pozza

doi:10.5327/Z217694781300

Autores

Priscila Boleta Gonçalves Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) - Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9632-1340
Danilo Covaes Nogarotto Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) - Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5046-807X
Felippe Benavente Canteras Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) - Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1979-0765
Simone Andrea Pozza Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp) - Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7423-0982

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5327/Z217694781300

Palavras-chave:

SARS-CoV-2; taxa de isolamento; poluição do ar; aerossol.

Resumo

A doença COVID-19 surgiu no final de 2019 e espalhou-se rapidamente pelo mundo em 2020, tendo como sintoma uma crise respiratória aguda e causando milhões de vítimas. De acordo com a literatura, ainda não está clara a relação entre a transmissão de COVID-19 e fatores climáticos e poluentes do ar, sendo portanto fundamentais estudos que visem esclarecer essa correlação. Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo determinar a correlação entre o número de casos de COVID-19, a concentração de material particulado (MP) e variáveis meteorológicas na cidade de Limeira, Brasil. As análises estatísticas utilizadas foram um modelo generalizado com distribuição gama, correlação de Spearman e análise de cluster, seguida do teste de Mann-Whitney. As variáveis incluídas foram pluviosidade, temperatura, velocidade do vento, umidade relativa e pressão atmosférica, além da taxa de isolamento, variáveis dummy para flexibilidade de abertura de estabelecimentos e dia da semana. A concentração de material particulado inalável grosso (MP₁₀) apresentou correlação inversa com umidade relativa, pluviosidade e pressão. O particulado total em suspensão (PTS) teve correlação inversa com umidade relativa, pluviosidade, fins de semana e taxa de isolamento. Também foi encontrada correlação entre o número de casos de COVID-19 com pressão, MP₁₀ e PTS. Finalmente, o risco relativo calculado mostrou que a redução das concentrações de MP₁₀ afeta diretamente a saúde, o que implica quase 13 mortes evitadas em Limeira, no período da pandemia. Os resultados obtidos fornecem informações importantes para melhorar a qualidade do ar e estratégias para conter a transmissão da COVID-19. Além disso, embora em pequena escala, eles confirmam a relação entre taxa de isolamento, concentração de MP e casos de COVID-19.

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