The influence of weather on photovoltaic efficiency and solar mapping in Alagoas using the WRF-Solar model

Abstract

Although the use of photovoltaic (PV) energy is a well-established strategy for the energy transition and climate change mitigation through the reduction of CO₂ emissions, the literature lacks studies that integrate real-world field operation data with atmospheric models to map generation potential in the region. Power generation efficiency is directly influenced by the inherent characteristics of PV systems and by installation losses, variables quantified by the Performance Ratio (PR). Considering this, the current study investigates the direct influence of meteorological variables and soiling on system efficiency. The results indicate high operational performance, with an average PR exceeding 80%. Statistical analysis revealed that the correlations of PR with solar radiation and air temperature are negative (−0.76 and −0.74, respectively). In contrast, relative humidity and precipitation exhibited moderate positive correlations (0.52 and 0.46–0.48, respectively), highlighting the efficiency gains generated by the cooling and natural cleaning of the modules. Using linear and multiple linear regression, an equation was developed to represent PV output. Applying this equation to the output data from the WRF-Solar atmospheric model allowed for the spatialization of PV potential. The mapping revealed a potential ranging from 2.4 kWh/ kWp to 4.8 kWh/kWp in Alagoas, providing a robust methodological tool for local energy planning.